“As the economy grows, we use a growing amount of resources.” If asked if that statement is true probably the vast majority of people would say that it is.
You illustrated the “evaporation of everything” far better than I ever could.
As the economy grows, we consume less resources, use energy more efficiently, and produce less pollution and waste.
For me, if we play our cards right, this leads us to a post peak world by 2100-2150. I can imagine a future where humans live in prosperous gleaming cities in relative luxury to how we live today. The vast majority of the Earth’s surface, however, is returned to wildlife, enabled by the steady reduction of our need to exploit it.
Amazing article,restacks from credible people and a long list of references suggest you hopefully didnt cherry pick data to reach the conclusion you wanted.Makes it ever more surprising(suspicious too?) that the mainstream consensus is either promoting economic degrowth to mitigate climate change or a embracing populist denial of the latter.Raising living standards of ALL people shouldn't be a controversial topic
Thank you for this insightful post! Overall I agree with your sentiment, but.
While we can indeed grow and become richer with a stable energy supply, and that’s exactly what had happened for the past decades, it would be ideal that we start producing *way more* energy.
There are so many valuable things we could do with an abundant energy supply: removing CO2 from the air, ending water scarcity with massive water desalanation, greatly extending heating and AC everywhere humans need it, etc etc etc.
Using much more energy is a goal we should seek, not something to be avoided. We shouldn’t pursue degrowthers’ ideals. Would you agree?
Yes, I agree completely and enthusiastically. In particular I want to see reform of nuclear power regulation. We should be producing ten times as much from nuclear. But I favor any and all energy sources so long as they are competitive (without subsidies).
I agree with this, but I wonder what are the long term consequences of always ramping up energy use (I am talking millions of years). Atoms can be used and reused in an infinite number of ways, but energy gets less useful over time.
Fission, uranium & thorium, will easily power our civilization for a 100Myrs. Fusion until the Sun consumes the Earth. And who knows what energy sources we may discover in future centuries.
Excellent article Max and thought provoking as usual.
I've reached a point, I think, where I don't even look at the options on the table as positive or negative, progressive or conservative, optimistic or pessimistic. I simply see a natural process of transformation happening where a human/AI hybrid organism is emerging out of the collective human experiment and large amounts of resources and energy are flowing in that direction.
For now though, diesel powers all of this activity. Without it everything grinds to a halt. And Samsung's solid state batteries are still a few years away, so they say. And ramping up massive build out of new nuclear reactors looks sketchy in the current environment even though many countries appear to be on board. These transformative efforts would take many decades to fulfill and I'm not sure we have the connective tissue to join these dots.
The one way I can see some of this playing out with the latest tech maintained on track is for resources and energy to be sequestered by the currently affluent human and corporate power groups and direct all their efforts not to raising all boats in developing nations (which could be viewed as wasteful) but to this process of transformation which is already materializing i.e. trillions of dollars to be invested in AI and AGI development including dedicated energy requirements.
Obviously, this view is not going to be popular with the rest of the global population, but I think this is the choice that has already been made by the top brass and we're already seeing it unfold.
As you have pointed out, what is peaking is population growth and the increased efficiency of energy and resource use. Also, instead of economic growth following established trends, I think what we'll see is this process of transformation play out and the rest of the human population will be, in a way, put out to pasture and given 'palliative care' in the form of entertainment, cheap food, etc. and most will be happy with their lot. Is this not what is already happening?
We've been in a caterpillar phase devouring everything in our path for the last couple hundred years and now something else will emerge, a more streamlined higher-goal driven species that will colonize the solar system while also conquering inner space and raising our level above simply churning out more mod cons for more and more people.
Directed evolution in action, right? Or do we just allow a free for all where resources are stretched thin and our dreams peter out because the focus was misplaced?
But, of course, if we're heading to 100% digital satisfaction of needs you can ignore everything I just said!
Very interesting ideas and insights. Thank you for taking the time to put this together. I’m just sad that I have to wait until I die (and get revived) before I get to see this amazing new world. <grin>
A good article, but it doesn't address the Netherlands Fallacy, where developed nations will offshore their polluting industries to the Third World. And those raw materials include some extremely toxic ones which have been the subject of major lawsuits. It is much more of a scandal, for example, that asbestos was ever used as much as it was, as we've had indications for over a century that it was a highly toxic substance.
Thanks, Adam. Coming from you that recommendation means a lot.
Another outstanding article.
Thank you, Michael. I wish I had time to write a book on this and related topics. Maybe in a couple of years. Keep up the pro-progress energy!
And thanks so much for the recommendation for my Substack column.
I really appreciate it!
You illustrated the “evaporation of everything” far better than I ever could.
As the economy grows, we consume less resources, use energy more efficiently, and produce less pollution and waste.
For me, if we play our cards right, this leads us to a post peak world by 2100-2150. I can imagine a future where humans live in prosperous gleaming cities in relative luxury to how we live today. The vast majority of the Earth’s surface, however, is returned to wildlife, enabled by the steady reduction of our need to exploit it.
That will only happen if we can defeat the Malthusians who are currently running the Western World.
Amazing article,restacks from credible people and a long list of references suggest you hopefully didnt cherry pick data to reach the conclusion you wanted.Makes it ever more surprising(suspicious too?) that the mainstream consensus is either promoting economic degrowth to mitigate climate change or a embracing populist denial of the latter.Raising living standards of ALL people shouldn't be a controversial topic
Thank you for this insightful post! Overall I agree with your sentiment, but.
While we can indeed grow and become richer with a stable energy supply, and that’s exactly what had happened for the past decades, it would be ideal that we start producing *way more* energy.
There are so many valuable things we could do with an abundant energy supply: removing CO2 from the air, ending water scarcity with massive water desalanation, greatly extending heating and AC everywhere humans need it, etc etc etc.
Using much more energy is a goal we should seek, not something to be avoided. We shouldn’t pursue degrowthers’ ideals. Would you agree?
Yes, I agree completely and enthusiastically. In particular I want to see reform of nuclear power regulation. We should be producing ten times as much from nuclear. But I favor any and all energy sources so long as they are competitive (without subsidies).
I agree with this, but I wonder what are the long term consequences of always ramping up energy use (I am talking millions of years). Atoms can be used and reused in an infinite number of ways, but energy gets less useful over time.
Fission, uranium & thorium, will easily power our civilization for a 100Myrs. Fusion until the Sun consumes the Earth. And who knows what energy sources we may discover in future centuries.
Excellent article Max and thought provoking as usual.
I've reached a point, I think, where I don't even look at the options on the table as positive or negative, progressive or conservative, optimistic or pessimistic. I simply see a natural process of transformation happening where a human/AI hybrid organism is emerging out of the collective human experiment and large amounts of resources and energy are flowing in that direction.
For now though, diesel powers all of this activity. Without it everything grinds to a halt. And Samsung's solid state batteries are still a few years away, so they say. And ramping up massive build out of new nuclear reactors looks sketchy in the current environment even though many countries appear to be on board. These transformative efforts would take many decades to fulfill and I'm not sure we have the connective tissue to join these dots.
The one way I can see some of this playing out with the latest tech maintained on track is for resources and energy to be sequestered by the currently affluent human and corporate power groups and direct all their efforts not to raising all boats in developing nations (which could be viewed as wasteful) but to this process of transformation which is already materializing i.e. trillions of dollars to be invested in AI and AGI development including dedicated energy requirements.
Obviously, this view is not going to be popular with the rest of the global population, but I think this is the choice that has already been made by the top brass and we're already seeing it unfold.
As you have pointed out, what is peaking is population growth and the increased efficiency of energy and resource use. Also, instead of economic growth following established trends, I think what we'll see is this process of transformation play out and the rest of the human population will be, in a way, put out to pasture and given 'palliative care' in the form of entertainment, cheap food, etc. and most will be happy with their lot. Is this not what is already happening?
We've been in a caterpillar phase devouring everything in our path for the last couple hundred years and now something else will emerge, a more streamlined higher-goal driven species that will colonize the solar system while also conquering inner space and raising our level above simply churning out more mod cons for more and more people.
Directed evolution in action, right? Or do we just allow a free for all where resources are stretched thin and our dreams peter out because the focus was misplaced?
But, of course, if we're heading to 100% digital satisfaction of needs you can ignore everything I just said!
Very interesting ideas and insights. Thank you for taking the time to put this together. I’m just sad that I have to wait until I die (and get revived) before I get to see this amazing new world. <grin>
A good article, but it doesn't address the Netherlands Fallacy, where developed nations will offshore their polluting industries to the Third World. And those raw materials include some extremely toxic ones which have been the subject of major lawsuits. It is much more of a scandal, for example, that asbestos was ever used as much as it was, as we've had indications for over a century that it was a highly toxic substance.